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Exam 3: Forecasting

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Question 51

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Professor Very Busy needs to allocate time next week to include time for office hours. He needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. He has gathered the following data: What is this week's forecast using the naive approach?

A)  35
B)  50
C)  52
D)  65
E)  78

F) D) and E)
G) None of the above

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Question 52

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Exponential smoothing is a form of weighted averaging.

A) True
B) False

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Question 53

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The business analyst for Video Sales, Inc. wants to forecast this year's demand for DVD decoders based on the following historical data: $\begin{array} { | c | c | } \hline \text { Year } & \text { Enrollments } \\\hline 5 \text { Years ago } & 900 \\\hline 4 \text { Years ago } & 700 \\\hline 3 \text { Years ago } & 600 \\\hline 2 \text { Years ago } & 500 \\\hline \text { Last Year } & 300 \\\hline\end{array}$ What is the forecast for this year using trend-adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = .3 and beta = .2, if the forecast for last year was 310, the forecast for two years ago was 430, and the trend estimate for last year's forecast was -150?

The dean of a school of business is forecasting total student enrollment for this year's summer session classes based on the following historical data: $\begin{array} { | l | c | } \hline { \text { Year } } & \text { Enrollment } \\\hline \text { Four years ago } & 2000 \\\hline \text { Three years ago } & 2200 \\\hline \text { Two years ago } & 2800 \\\hline \text { Last year } & 3000 \\\hline\end{array}$ What is this year's forecast using the naive approach?

Forecasting techniques generally assume an existing causal system that will continue to exist in the future.

The owner of Darkest Tans Unlimited in a local mall is forecasting this month's (October's) demand for the one new tanning booth based on the following historical data: $\begin{array} { | l | c | } \hline { \text { Month } } & \text { Number of Visits } \\\hline \text { April } & 100 \\\hline \text { May } & 140 \\\hline \text { June } & 110 \\\hline \text { July } & 150 \\\hline \text { August } & 120 \\\hline \text { September } & 160 \\\hline\end{array}$ What is this month's forecast using a four-month weighted moving average with weights of .4, .3, .2, and .1?

The dean of a school of business is forecasting total student enrollment for this year's summer session classes based on the following historical data: $\begin{array} { | l | c | } \hline { \text { Year } } & \text { Enrollment } \\\hline \text { Four years ago } & 2000 \\\hline \text { Three years ago } & 2200 \\\hline \text { Two years ago } & 2800 \\\hline \text { Last year } & 3000 \\\hline\end{array}$ What is this year's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?

Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most quickly to forecast errors?

Forecasts based on judgment and opinion do not include:

Averaging techniques are useful for:

Professor Very Busy needs to allocate time next week to include time for office hours. He needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. He has gathered the following data: What is this week's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?

Trend-adjusted exponential smoothing uses double smoothing to add twice the forecast error to last period's actual demand.

Which of the following might be used to develop an estimate ofthe cyclical component of a forecast?

One reason for using the Delphi method in forecasting is to:

A moving average forecast tends to be more responsive to changes in the data series when more data points are included in the average.

The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollments for this academic year based on the following historical data: $\begin{array} { | l | c | } \hline \text { Year } & \text { Enrollments } \\\hline \text { 5 Years ago } & 15,000 \\\hline \text { 4 Years ago } & 16,000 \\\hline \text { 3 Years ago } & 18,000 \\\hline \text { 2 Years ago } & 20,000 \\\hline \text { Last Year } & 21,000 \\\hline\end{array}$ What is the forecast for this year using the naive approach?

Organizations that are capable of responding quickly to changing requirements can use a shorter forecast horizon and therefore benefit from more accurate forecasts.

Bias exists when forecasts tend to be greater or less than the actual values of time series.

Given forecast errors of -5, -10, and +15, the MAD is:

Which of the following is/are a primary input into capacity, sales, and production planning?