Question 1

A control chart involves setting action limits for cumulative forecast error.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 2

What is this year's forecast using a three-year simple moving average?

Accepted Answer

A)  2,667
B)  2,600
C)  2,500
D)  2,400
E)  2,333F) C) and E)
G) A) and D)

Question 3

Which of the following is not a step in the forecasting process?

Accepted Answer

A)  determine the purpose and level of detail required
B)  eliminate all assumptions
C)  establish a time horizon
D)  select a forecasting model
E)  monitor the forecastF) A) and D)
G) A) and C)

Question 4

A moving average forecast tends to be more responsive to changes in the data series when more data points are included in the average.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 5

The Delphi approach involves the use of a series of questionnaires to achieve a consensus forecast.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 6

The naive forecast is limited in its application to series that reflect no trend or seasonality.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 7

What is the forecast for this year using the least squares trend line for these data?

Accepted Answer

A)  163
B)  180
C)  300
D)  420
E)  510F) C) and D)
G) A) and D)

Question 8

What is this year's forecast using the naive approach?

Accepted Answer

A)  22,000
B)  20,000
C)  18,000
D)  15,000
E)  12,000F) A) and C)
G) A) and B)

Question 9

Gradual, long-term movement in time series data is called:

Accepted Answer

A)  seasonal variation
B)  cycles
C)  irregular variation
D)  trend
E)  random variationF) A) and D)
G) B) and E)

Question 10

The mean absolute deviation (MAD)  is used to:

Accepted Answer

A)  estimate the trend line
B)  eliminate forecast errors
C)  measure forecast accuracy
D)  seasonally adjust the forecast
E)  all of the aboveF) A) and B)
G) None of the above

Question 11

Averaging techniques are useful for:

Accepted Answer

A)  distinguishing between random and non-random variations
B)  smoothing out fluctuations in time series
C)  eliminating historical data
D)  providing accuracy in forecasts
E)  average peopleF) D) and E)
G) A) and B)

Question 12

An important goal of forecasting is to minimize the average forecast error.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 13

What is the annual rate of change (slope)  of the least squares trend line for these data?

Accepted Answer

A)  0
B)  200
C)  400
D)  180
E)  360F) All of the above
G) D) and E)

Question 14

What is the forecast for this year using exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.5, if the forecast for two years ago was 16,000?

Accepted Answer

A)  18,750
B)  19,500
C)  21,000
D)  22,650
E)  22,800F) A) and E)
G) B) and E)

Question 15

A manager is using exponential smoothing to predict merchandise returns at a suburban branch of a department store chain.Given a previous forecast of 140 items, an actual number of returns of 148 items, and a smoothing constant equal to .15, what is the forecast for the next period?

Accepted Answer

The answer of A manager is using exponential smoothing to...

Question 16

What is this year's forecast using trend adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = 0.2 and beta = 0.1, if the forecast for last year was 56, the forecast for two years ago was 46, and the trend estimate for last year's forecast was 7?

Accepted Answer

The answer of What is this year's forecast using trend...

Question 17

Which of the following is the most valuable piece of information the sales force can bring into forecasting situations?

Accepted Answer

A)  what customers are most likely to do in the future
B)  what customers most want to do in the future
C)  what customers' future plans are
D)  whether customers are satisfied or dissatisfied with their performance in the past
E)  what the salesperson's appropriate sales quota should beF) A) and E)
G) C) and D)

Question 18

Which technique is used in computing seasonal relatives?

Accepted Answer

A)  double smoothing
B)  Delphi
C)  Mean Squared Error (MS
E)  
D)  centered moving average
E)  exponential smoothingF) A) and B)
G) B) and C)

Question 19

Given the following historical data, what is the simple three-period moving average forecast for period 6?

Accepted Answer

A)  67
B)  115
C)  69
D)  68
E)  68.67F) D) and E)
G) C) and D)

Question 20

Given forecast errors of 4, 8, and - 3, what is the mean absolute deviation?

Accepted Answer

A)  4
B)  3
C)  5
D)  6
E)  12F) B) and C)
G) D) and E)

Exam 3: Forecasting

What is this year's forecast using the naive approach?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

What is this year's forecast using trend adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = 0.2 and beta = 0.1, if the forecast for last year was 56, the forecast for two years ago was 46, and the trend estimate for last year's forecast was 7?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

The Delphi approach involves the use of a series of questionnaires to achieve a consensus forecast.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Gradual, long-term movement in time series data is called:

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

The naive forecast is limited in its application to series that reflect no trend or seasonality.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

What is the annual rate of change (slope) of the least squares trend line for these data?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is used to:

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

What is the forecast for this year using exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.5, if the forecast for two years ago was 16,000?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

What is this year's forecast using a three-year simple moving average?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

A moving average forecast tends to be more responsive to changes in the data series when more data points are included in the average.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

An important goal of forecasting is to minimize the average forecast error.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Which of the following is the most valuable piece of information the sales force can bring into forecasting situations?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

A manager is using exponential smoothing to predict merchandise returns at a suburban branch of a department store chain.Given a previous forecast of 140 items, an actual number of returns of 148 items, and a smoothing constant equal to .15, what is the forecast for the next period?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

A control chart involves setting action limits for cumulative forecast error.

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Given forecast errors of 4, 8, and - 3, what is the mean absolute deviation?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Averaging techniques are useful for:

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Given the following historical data, what is the simple three-period moving average forecast for period 6?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Which of the following is not a step in the forecasting process?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Which technique is used in computing seasonal relatives?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

What is the forecast for this year using the least squares trend line for these data?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

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